Biggest Bluff

“[A] basic shortcoming of our neural wiring is that we can’t quite grasp probabilities. Statistics are completely counterintuitive: our brains are simply not cut out, evolutionarily, to understand that inherent uncertainty.”


“The postmortem for a problem can be the preamble to a solution.” “When people’s well-being depends on hitting certain numbers, they get very interested in tilting the odds in their favor.”